DEFCON 3, 2, 1.....BOOM!

Well, the pucker factor in South Korea is on the rise.

Rumors are rampant around the web that South Korea has hit DEFCON 1 (DEFense CONdition 1) and that non-essential personnel are being advised to evacuate. I have not read anything that confirms these rumors as being true.

MINA has confirmed that the US Army has reached level 2 as reported in this article. Level 2 was the level of readiness we experienced during the Cuban Missile Crisis back in 1962.

Level 1 would seem to indicate that hostilities are imminent.




Kim Jong Il is a character. There's no doubt about that. The guy has been flipping the world the bird longer than any man in power, and he's gotten away with it. In a strange way, I have to admire him for that alone. Please don't mistake that as an endorsement of his policies or what he has done to his own people.

What is going to happen? That's something that is really up in the air.

You have an aged leader in failing health who has spent a lifetime working to join the nuclear club. He's managed to do it finally. He's viewed the world as being arrayed against him, and he's desperate to see what he has built survive beyond his lifetime.

Chances are that he knows whoever follows him will have to be the same hardliner as he has been. Will that happen? Maybe.

The world has been increasing pressure on North Korea to moderate its stance. Even China, North Korea's stalwart ally, has been working on getting this guy to just ease up a bit. He's been busy biting the hand that feeds him and the Chinese are not amused. China will send humanitarian aid into North Korea and rumor is Kim will even keep the planes, trains and trucks that the aid arrives in.

One of the things many people forget is the issue of "face". In most Asian cultures the ability to maintain a strong image for one's people is paramount. Looking weak or impotent is not acceptable, and being a loser, a failure, or without honor is death.

The world has not allowed enough avenues for Kim to maintain the needed posture in front of his nation while acceding to international demands . Hence, he may just decide to go down swinging.

He's old. He's tired. He has nuclear capability and delivery systems.

What this will do to other nations within Asia is questionable. China can not be allowed to be perceived as abandoning an ally, regardless of how troublesome that ally has been. Japan has always had strained relations with the Korean people on both sides of the DMZ, Russia and with China. Japan's recent upswing in militarism has caused concerns in governments from the Philippines to Russia. Russia has never forgotten the stinging defeat they suffered at the hands of the Japanese, and the Kuril Islands are still a bone of contention.

There's alot of stuff running just under the surface. If Kim decides to nuke Seoul or a preemptive strike on North Korea is attempted, things could get dicey in a heartbeat.

My guess is that Kim will have "an accident" in order to keep the status quo.